The Sand

Semiconductors & Manufacturing

Layer 01 of seven · Semiconductors & Manufacturing

Why it matters
Every AI product in existence is a claim on a scarce manufacturing supply chain. Accelerator supply, memory supply and packaging capacity set the ceiling on how much AI the world can run in a given year, whatever anyone's software roadmap says.
The bottleneck
Leading edge manufacturing capacity, advanced packaging, and high bandwidth memory. Memory bandwidth in particular is a common constraint: an accelerator that cannot be fed with data quickly enough spends its time waiting rather than computing.
Who captures value?
Businesses holding a genuine chokepoint. That means proprietary designs paired with software people already use, manufacturing nobody else can replicate at scale, and equipment with no production alternative.
What could change?
Hyperscalers moving more workloads to their own accelerators, a step change in model efficiency that reduces compute demand per unit of output, or export policy redrawing who can buy what.

AI can run on conventional processors, but specialised accelerators make large modern AI workloads dramatically more efficient. This layer designs, manufactures and packages them.

Everything else in the ecosystem rests on a supply chain that turns refined sand into transistors, stacks memory next to them, and ships the result in a package that can be cooled. It is the most concentrated part of the ecosystem: a small number of designers, a smaller number of manufacturers, and in the case of EUV lithography, one supplier. Understanding who holds which chokepoint is the single most useful thing you can do before looking at anything above it.

Silicon waferRAW MATERIALA polished disc of ultra pure silicon, sliced from a crystal grown out of refined sand. Every chip on earth starts here.EUV machineASMLASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography machine prints circuit patterns onto the wafer. Around $200 million each, and nobody else can build one.FoundryTSMCTSMC runs the machines, etches the layers and stacks them into working chips. Most advanced AI silicon is manufactured in Taiwan.Finished GPUNVIDIA / AMD DESIGNNVIDIA and AMD design the chip but own no factories. They send the blueprint to TSMC and sell the result to data centres.PRINTS THE PATTERNETCHES AND STACKSDesign and manufacturing are separate businesses.

Tap or hover a box to see what it does

Sand becomes wafers, wafers become chips. ASML builds the printer, TSMC runs the factory, NVIDIA and AMD design what gets printed.

Accelerators and processors

CPUs are optimised for flexible, general purpose and low latency computing. GPUs contain many more, simpler processing units and are especially effective at performing large numbers of similar calculations in parallel, which is what training and inference mostly consist of.

publicNVDA

NVIDIA

What it does

Designs the GPUs and accelerated computing platforms used for much of modern AI training and inference, and sells the networking that ties them together.

Why it matters

The hardware is only half of it. CUDA, the software libraries built on top of it, and a very large developer base make NVIDIA systems the default choice for teams who want to ship rather than port.

What could go wrong

Custom accelerators built by its own largest customers, a stronger AMD, revenue concentrated in a handful of buyers, export restrictions, and model architectures that shift the balance of demand.

Position in the ecosystem
publicAMD

AMD

What it does

Designs CPUs and the Instinct family of AI accelerators, sold as an alternative to NVIDIA at the data centre scale.

Why it matters

The credible second source. Buyers who dislike depending on one supplier have somewhere to go, and that alone shapes pricing conversations across the industry.

What could go wrong

Software maturity remains the harder problem than silicon. Winning benchmark results does not automatically move workloads that were written against a rival's tooling.

Position in the ecosystem
publicINTC

Intel

What it does

Designs and manufactures CPUs, and is attempting to build a contract manufacturing business for other companies' chip designs.

Why it matters

The only Western firm seriously attempting leading edge logic manufacturing at scale, which makes it strategically interesting to governments quite apart from its commercial results.

What could go wrong

Foundry economics are brutal. The turnaround requires capital, process execution and external customers arriving at roughly the same time.

Position in the ecosystem

Manufacturing and lithography

Designers such as NVIDIA and AMD are fabless: they own no factories. The physical work happens at foundries, using lithography systems that print features measured in nanometres, and packaging that binds logic and memory into a single module.

publicTSM

TSMC

What it does

Manufactures chips designed by other companies, including most leading edge AI accelerators, and provides the advanced packaging that binds logic dies to memory.

Why it matters

Capacity at the leading node is scarce and allocated years ahead. Packaging capacity has at times been a tighter constraint than the transistors themselves.

What could go wrong

Geographic concentration in Taiwan, the cost of overseas fabs, and the cyclical nature of committing tens of billions to capacity ahead of demand.

Position in the ecosystem
publicASML

ASML

What it does

Builds the lithography systems used to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, including extreme ultraviolet machines.

Why it matters

ASML is currently the world's only supplier of production EUV lithography systems, which are required for manufacturing many of the most advanced chips.

What could go wrong

Export controls limit which customers it can serve, orders are lumpy, and demand ultimately tracks the capital spending decisions of a small number of chipmakers.

Position in the ecosystem

High bandwidth memory

HBM stacks memory dies vertically and places them beside the accelerator, giving far more bandwidth than conventional memory laid out on a board. Since large models must stream billions of parameters for every token they produce, HBM supply has repeatedly gated how many AI systems can actually be built.

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SK hynix

What it does

Manufactures memory, including high bandwidth memory stacks that sit alongside AI accelerators.

Why it matters

An accelerator can only compute as fast as it can be fed. HBM supply has repeatedly been the gating factor on how many AI systems can actually be built in a given year.

What could go wrong

Memory is historically cyclical. Capacity added into a boom has a habit of arriving into a downturn.

Position in the ecosystem
publicMU

Micron

What it does

Manufactures DRAM, NAND and high bandwidth memory used in AI servers.

Why it matters

One of a very small group able to produce HBM at volume, which turns a commodity business into a partly allocated one while demand runs hot.

What could go wrong

Pricing power fades quickly once supply catches up, and HBM qualification cycles with accelerator vendors are demanding.

Position in the ecosystem
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Samsung Electronics

What it does

Manufactures memory including HBM, runs a contract chip manufacturing business, and builds consumer devices.

Why it matters

The third HBM supplier, and the swing factor in whether memory stays tight. Its foundry is also the main alternative to TSMC at advanced nodes.

What could go wrong

Qualification delays on new memory generations and a foundry that has struggled to match its main rival on yield.

Position in the ecosystem

Custom silicon

Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Inferentia, Microsoft's Maia and Meta's MTIA exist because the largest buyers would rather own their cost structure than rent it. Designing in-house improves margins on their own workloads and reduces dependence on a single supplier. For NVIDIA this is both an opportunity, since it still sells into those same data centres, and a risk, since the customers designing these parts are also its biggest source of revenue.

publicAVGO

Broadcom

What it does

Co-designs custom AI accelerators for hyperscalers and supplies much of the switching and connectivity silicon inside data centres.

Why it matters

It sits on both sides of the custom silicon story. When a cloud provider builds its own chip to reduce dependence on merchant GPUs, Broadcom is often the partner making that possible.

What could go wrong

Custom programmes are concentrated in a few customers who can change direction, and the software business carries its own integration risk.

Position in the ecosystem
publicGOOGL

Alphabet (Google)

What it does

Builds Gemini models through Google DeepMind, designs TPU accelerators, operates Google Cloud, and distributes AI through Search, Workspace and Android.

Why it matters

It is one of the few organisations that designs the chip, runs the data centre, trains the model and owns the consumer surface it ships on.

What could go wrong

AI answers can cannibalise the advertising business that funds everything else, and antitrust proceedings could reshape distribution.

publicAMZN

Amazon

What it does

Runs AWS, designs Trainium and Inferentia accelerators, hosts third party models through Bedrock, and invests in Anthropic.

Why it matters

The largest cloud business is trying to own its own accelerator roadmap rather than rent it, which is the clearest example of the custom silicon threat to merchant GPUs.

What could go wrong

Custom silicon needs software adoption to matter, and cloud growth is now compared against very large numbers.

Position in the ecosystem
publicMSFT

Microsoft

What it does

Runs Azure, distributes AI through Microsoft 365 and Copilot, partners commercially with OpenAI, and designs its own Maia accelerators.

Why it matters

Few businesses touch as many parts of the ecosystem at once. It owns infrastructure, a commercial route to frontier models, and the enterprise distribution to sell the result.

What could go wrong

Very heavy capital spending against uncertain payback, dependence on partner model roadmaps, and buyers questioning per-seat AI pricing.

publicMETA

Meta

What it does

Develops the Llama model family and deploys AI across its own products, while designing MTIA accelerators for internal workloads.

Why it matters

Meta's Llama is an open-weight model family. Its weights can be downloaded and run independently, although Meta's licensing terms mean it is not considered open source under the strict Open Source Definition. Releasing capable weights commoditises a layer that rivals sell.

What could go wrong

Very large capital spending with returns that arrive through advertising rather than direct AI revenue, and licensing scrutiny.

Position in the ecosystem
publicMRVL

Marvell Technology

What it does

Designs data infrastructure silicon including optical interconnect, custom compute and storage controllers.

Why it matters

Moving a signal off a chip, across a rack and between buildings is its own engineering discipline. Marvell sells into the parts of that path most people never think about.

What could go wrong

Custom programme timing is lumpy and dependent on a handful of hyperscaler decisions.

Position in the ecosystem

How to think about the economics

  • GrowthVery high

    How quickly demand in this part of the ecosystem is expanding.

  • Capital intensityVery high

    How much money has to be spent up front before revenue arrives.

  • Competitive moatVery high

    How difficult it is for a credible new entrant to take the business.

  • Customer concentrationHigh

    How much revenue depends on a small number of buyers.

  • Disruption riskModerate

    How exposed the layer is to a technical or commercial shift.

This is a framework for thinking about the economics of a layer, not a recommendation. An important AI company, a strategically advantaged company, an investable security and an attractively valued security are four different things.

Where value may accrue

Scarcity, intellectual property, manufacturing complexity and software lock-in. In semiconductors the margin sits with whoever holds the step in the process that cannot be substituted, and historically that has been a small and stable list.

Key terms in this layer

EUV lithography
Extreme ultraviolet lithography, the process that prints circuit patterns onto silicon wafers using light at 13.5 nanometres, just above the X ray range. Only ASML builds the machines.
ExampleOne ASML EUV machine costs around $200 million and ships in 40 freight containers.
Related termsSilicon waferFoundry
Foundry
A factory that manufactures chips designed by someone else. Designers like NVIDIA own no factories; foundries like TSMC own no chip designs.
ExampleTSMC manufactures most of the world's advanced AI silicon in Taiwan.
Related termsSilicon waferEUV lithographyGPU
GPU
Graphics processing unit. Originally built to render games, it turns out the same maths renders neural networks. The workhorse chip of the AI era.
ExampleNVIDIA's data centre GPUs are the default hardware for training frontier models.
Related termsData centreTrainingInference
Silicon wafer
A polished disc of ultra pure silicon, sliced from a crystal grown out of refined sand. Every chip on earth starts as one of these.
ExampleTSMC etches billions of transistors onto each wafer.
Related termsFoundryEUV lithography
High bandwidth memory (HBM)
Memory dies stacked vertically and placed right beside the accelerator, giving far more bandwidth than conventional memory on a board. Large models must stream billions of parameters for every token, so HBM supply often limits how many AI systems can be built.
ExampleSK hynix, Micron and Samsung are the three main HBM suppliers.
Related termsGPUSilicon wafer
Custom silicon
Chips designed in-house by the big buyers rather than purchased from a merchant supplier. The hyperscalers build their own accelerators to own their cost structure and reduce dependence on one supplier.
ExampleGoogle's TPU, Amazon's Trainium, Microsoft's Maia and Meta's MTIA.
Related termsASICGPUHigh bandwidth memory (HBM)
ASIC
Application specific integrated circuit: a chip designed for one job and nothing else. Harder to change than a GPU, but cheaper and faster per unit of work once the design is settled.
ExampleMost custom AI accelerators, including Google's TPU, are ASICs.
Related termsCustom siliconGPU
TPU
Tensor processing unit: Google's custom AI accelerator, designed in-house and manufactured by foundries. The longest running proof that a hyperscaler can build credible silicon of its own.
ExampleGoogle trains and serves Gemini on its own TPUs.
Related termsCustom siliconASIC

Related questions

Doesn't NVIDIA manufacture its own chips?

No, and this surprises a lot of people. NVIDIA designs the chips and outsources manufacturing, mostly to TSMC in Taiwan. It is a fabless company: engineers and intellectual property rather than factories. AMD and Apple work the same way. Physical manufacturing is extraordinarily capital intensive, and TSMC has spent decades becoming very difficult to replace at the leading edge.

What is the difference between a CPU and a GPU?

CPUs are optimised for flexible, general purpose and low latency computing. They handle branching, unpredictable work and the everyday business of running an operating system. GPUs contain many more, simpler processing units and are especially effective at performing large numbers of similar calculations in parallel. That parallel arithmetic is most of what training and inference consist of, which is why a design originally refined for rendering graphics turned out to suit AI so well.

Can AI run on ordinary processors?

Yes. AI can run on conventional processors, but specialised accelerators make large modern AI workloads dramatically more efficient. The difference is not capability so much as cost, speed and energy. A model that takes seconds on an accelerator might take minutes or hours on a general purpose CPU, and at scale that gap becomes the entire economics of the business.

What is HBM and why does it keep coming up?

High Bandwidth Memory stacks memory dies vertically and places them next to the accelerator rather than out on the board. That gives far more bandwidth, which matters because a large model has to stream billions of parameters for every token it produces. If memory cannot supply data fast enough, the accelerator waits. That is why memory bandwidth, not raw arithmetic, is often the real constraint, and why HBM supply from SK hynix, Micron and Samsung has repeatedly limited how many AI systems could be built in a given year.

Why does everyone keep mentioning Taiwan?

Because TSMC, which manufactures most leading edge chips, is based there, and Taiwan sits in a contested region. A serious disruption to its operations would slow the global AI build out considerably, and there is no quick substitute for that capacity. That is the reason the United States, the European Union and Japan are all subsidising domestic manufacturing. The motivation is industrial policy and national security as much as economics.

Does ASML have any competition?

ASML is currently the world's only supplier of production EUV lithography systems, which are required for manufacturing many of the most advanced chips. Other companies make lithography equipment for less advanced processes, so this is not a monopoly on lithography as a whole. The EUV machines themselves are remarkable. Light at a wavelength of 13.5 nanometres, close to the X ray range, is produced by firing a laser at tin droplets tens of thousands of times a second. The light is then steered by mirrors so smooth that if you scaled one to the size of Germany, the biggest bump would be less than a tenth of a millimetre high. A single system costs in the region of two hundred million dollars and ships in dozens of freight containers. Canon and Nikon have both competed in lithography and neither has brought a production EUV system to market. The advantage is technical and cumulative rather than granted by regulators. The Dutch government, under pressure from the United States, also restricts sales of the most advanced systems to China, which makes one company in one Dutch city a genuine chokepoint in the technology relationship between two superpowers.

Is Meta's Llama really open source?

Not in the strict sense. Meta's Llama is an open-weight model family. Its weights can be downloaded and run independently, although Meta's licensing terms mean it is not considered open source under the Open Source Definition maintained by the Open Source Initiative. The distinction matters commercially. Open weights let a company run a capable model on its own infrastructure, which puts real pricing pressure on paid APIs, but the licence still places conditions on how it may be used.

What is agentic AI?

Most AI use is still reactive: you ask, it answers. An agent is given a goal instead, and works out the intermediate steps, calling tools, reading data and looping until it decides the task is finished. That shift is why permissions, audit trails and identity suddenly matter so much. A chatbot that is wrong wastes your time. An agent that is wrong can take an action on your behalf, which is a different category of problem.

What is the difference between training and inference?

Training is not a single event. Pre-training is the long, expensive phase where a model learns general patterns from very large amounts of data. Post-training shapes that raw model into something useful and better behaved, often using human feedback and reinforcement learning. Fine-tuning adapts an existing model to a narrower task or domain, and can be done repeatedly and comparatively cheaply. Inference is the model actually answering, which happens billions of times a day. Much of the current demand for chips, power and data centres is driven by inference at scale rather than by headline training runs alone.

What is a foundation model?

A large, general purpose model trained on a very broad dataset, which can then be adapted to particular tasks. The GPT, Claude, Gemini and Llama families are all foundation models. They are called foundations because applications, tools and agents get built on top of them. Training one is an expensive bet that sitting at the base of the stack is where lasting value accrues, which is precisely the question the rest of this site is trying to help you think about.

Sources and further reading (9)+
  1. 1Investor relations and quarterly results · NVIDIA
  2. 2Quarterly results and technology roadmap · TSMC
  3. 3EUV lithography technology overview · ASML
  4. 4Annual report and export control disclosures · ASML
  5. 5High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) standards · JEDEC
  6. 6HBM product and technology pages · SK hynix
  7. 7HBM3E product documentation · Micron
  8. 8Cloud TPU system architecture · Google Cloud
  9. 9Trainium and Inferentia documentation · AWS
Last fact-checked: 29 August 2026

The AI ecosystem changes rapidly. Company positions, technologies and market data reflect information available at the date above.